Electoral competition is the struggle between candidates and parties to gain the most votes. As society changes and technology advances, the strategies and tactics used by politicians to win elections become more sophisticated. Game theory is the branch of mathematics which studies strategic decision making in conflicts between two or more parties. Game theory helps us understand how politicians make strategic decisions during an election campaign, so let’s dive in and explore how game theory can be used for electoral competition.
What is the game theory of electoral competition?
Game theory is the branch of mathematics which studies strategic decision making in conflicts between two or more parties. In politics, politicians in the same electoral district compete for votes by offering policies, platforms or positions on issues. There are two basic types of game theory – cooperative game theory and non-cooperative game theory (also known as zero-sum game theory). In cooperative game theory, the members of a game cooperate to maximize their gains. In non-cooperative game theory, all of the parties involved in the game aim to win, and the payoff is typically zero-sum, meaning that one side’s gain is equal to the other side’s loss. In electoral competition, the goal is to win the most votes, so non-cooperative game theory is the most relevant.
In electoral competition, the strategies, or ‘moves’, are policies, platforms or positions on issues. Through things like televised debates, interviews and campaign literature, candidates can attempt to sway voter opinion with their moves. However, candidates must also consider the moves of their opponents. This is where game theory becomes useful; game theory allows us to consider the potential actions of the opponents and understand how to best outplay them.
How does game theory help us understand how politicians make strategic decisions during an election campaign?
Game theory helps politicians make strategic decisions by providing insight into their opponents’ potential moves. For instance, if a candidate in a two-party race knows that the other candidate has strong support among young voters, he or she can tailor a message which appeals to those voters and perhaps turn the tide in the election. Game theory also helps politicians understand how voters might respond to the various strategies which can be deployed in an election. If a politician is considering deploying a certain strategy, they can use game theory to weigh the potential risks and rewards.
Politicians must also consider the knock-on effects of their moves during an election campaign. This is an area where game theory can be useful; game theory helps politicians anticipate the consequences of their moves and the impact those moves might have on the electoral race. For instance, before deciding whether to launch a negative campaign, a politician can use game theory to consider the potential backlash and adjust the strategy accordingly.
What are some of the most important factors to consider when designing an electoral system?
When designing an electoral system, it is important to consider a variety of factors. The number of elected representatives is one of the primary considerations; the number of elected representatives will determine the size and shape of the electoral districts. It is also important to consider the electoral system itself, for example, the choice between a first-past-the-post or proportional representation system. Alternatively, an electoral system can also be designed to elect multiple members from each electoral district using a multi-member proportional or ranked-choice voting system.
The voting age is another important factor to consider when designing an electoral system. Setting the voting age too high or too low can have a major impact on election outcomes. It is also important to consider voter registration and voter access. Making voter registration as simple and accessible as possible is essential to ensure fair and open elections.
In addition, it is important to consider the role of political parties. Depending on the electoral system, the influence of political parties can vary greatly. If a system uses a first-past-the-post or ranked choice voting system, then the influence of political parties – or lack thereof – can have a significant effect on election outcomes.
Conclusion
Game theory is an invaluable tool for understanding and navigating the complex world of electoral competition. By considering the potential moves of opponents and the knock-on effects of their strategies, politicians can make informed decisions which give them the best chance of winning an election. When designing an electoral system, it is important to consider a variety of factors, such as the number of elected representatives, the electoral system and the voting age. Ultimately, game theory helps us make sense of the ever-changing world of electoral competition.
References
Nalebuff, Barry J., and Adam Brandenburger. “Co-opetition: A Revolutionary Mindset That Combines Competition and Cooperation.” Harvard Business Review (1996): 1-12.